Meteorological experts have been tracking a band of warm water in the Pacific Ocean this year, with signs pointing to the resurgence of an El Niño event by the end of the year.
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Michael Glasson of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Moree field office said the chances of an El Niño affecting the local and surrounding region are at around 50 per cent.
The weather prediction has been the cause of some trepidation among meteorologists and farmers alike, with the climate phenomenon typically foreboding extended bouts of hot, dry weather for much of eastern Australia.
Mr Glasson summarised predictions to the coming season and said September, October and November are shaping up to be dry months, but said is south-eastern and inland New South Wales experiences an El Niño, it will likely be a weak event given the lateness of the year.
The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an irregular weather phenomenon, occurring in intervals every two to seven years and is driven by climatic changes in the Pacific Ocean.
As warmer waters arrive in the Central and Eastern Pacific Ocean, easterly trade winds weaken resulting in a reduction of cloud coverage over eastern Australia.
Mr Glasson said the previous year has been one of the driest on record since 1901 in many parts of the state, rounding out what he called a “once in 100 year event”.
The sentiment was shared by Local Land Services’ Jason Siddell who said this year has potentially been the worst producers have seen in a long time.
“This year in some parts is one of the worst in probably 60 or more years. If it wasn’t, there are probably not a lot of years that were worse,” he said.
Mr Siddell said recovery from current trying conditions is reliant on good follow-up rainfall following promising falls earlier in the month.
“Really it’s going to be the make or the break,” he said.
“In many places we are lucky to have three centimetres of pasture and in some places we’ve got not much at all really, so if we get good follow up rain, then we could have a pretty good season.”
For livestock producers, Mr Siddell said forward planning is key to surviving hard times.
“The best thing people can do at the moment is start planning either way and have target dates set, with certain trigger points in mind,” he said.
“If worst case scenario does happen, people are a lot more prepared with forward planning to see some higher prices.
“I’d be looking at the moment, toward the next lot of weaner sales, which are in April or May usually and making some decisions based on that.”
