The campaigns of Barnaby Joyce and Tony Windsor are certainly already underway. 

At this stage, however, it is a scenario that is still only  ‘likely’. There is no set election date, no finalisation of candidates and no clear indication of where anyone will direct those all important preferences. 

Some commentators have referred to it as the ‘Phoney election’, comparing it to the ‘Phoney War’ at the start of World War II, which was a period of inaction prior to the attacks on England starting in earnest. 

What is real is the early thrusting and parrying from both camps; not really the stuff of the serious campaigning that will explode, once a date for the election is announced. 

At the moment it’s looking very much like July 2, following a double dissolution, so that could be when the campaign bombardment will drown out the shouting from the sidelines mainly being heard at the moment. 

Both Joyce and Windsor are experts in playing the man, so expect it to get personal and probably dirty before the end of what will seem to be a long campaign by both sides of politics. 

Barnaby Joyce’s career is on the line, as evidenced by ex-Prime Minister John Howard’s sudden interest in the seat on behalf of the Liberal Party, and while Tony Windsor has said he is not afraid of losing, a win would vindicate not only his return, but also his time as the advocate for this electorate. 

The battle for this electorate, at the moment, really is too close to predict, all the polls tell us so.

There will be more than just these two candidates on the New England ballot paper too, representing an alternative for anyone who might not want to vote for either Mr Joyce or Mr Windsor for whatever reason. You can bet the usual bunch of candidates will turn-up.

But it seems, barring any great opponent induced catastrophe by either candidate during the next 12 weeks, it will be the swing voters who decide the outcome; those people who hold no real political allegiance, and cast their considered vote with the future of the electorate in mind by linking it to a name on the ballot paper.